Can you see the aurora tonight?

QUIET G1 watch · 20 Oct

Quiet

Conditions look quiet — calm solar wind, low Kp. Aurora is confined to the far north tonight.

Confidence: high — All core feeds are fresh.

Watch G1 (Minor) predicted for Tue 20 Oct (UTC day)
A forecast, not an observed storm. NOAA gives the highest level expected on each UTC day, not the hour. Rest of this bulletin: Sun 18 Oct below G1; Mon 19 Oct below G1. NOAA says it replaces all earlier watches. NOAA: area of impact primarily poleward of 60° geomagnetic latitude. NOAA on aurora at this level: “Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.”
Issued by NOAA 20:14 UTC, 17 Oct · WATA20 #1130 · covers Sun 18 Oct–Tue 20 Oct (UTC days) · fetched by Aurorix 11:21 UTC, 18 Oct
Warning No NOAA geomagnetic warning is in effect.
fetched by Aurorix 11:21 UTC, 18 Oct
Observed alert NOAA has issued no K-index alert for the current 3-hour period.
fetched by Aurorix 11:21 UTC, 18 Oct
Newest notice in NOAA's feed: issued 20:14 UTC, 17 Oct · 24 radio, X-ray and particle notices are not aurora forecasts and are not listed

data as of 11:17 UTC, 18 Oct

Tonight at your location

No account. The maths runs in your browser; only a coarse, ~1 km-rounded position is sent to fetch your cloud forecast, and we never store it. How we handle location.

Kp now

Estimated planetary Kp —

data as of 11:17 UTC, 18 Oct

Solar wind at L1

Bz (IMF) — nT

Speed — km/s

Density — p/cc

Enhanced-wind ETA —

Active spacecraft: —. Bz below zero (shaded red) is storm-favourable. Why Bz beats Kp in real time →

Aurora power

Northern hemispheric power — GW

From NOAA's OVATION model. Higher = more energy into the auroral oval.

Next 3 days (Kp by 3-hour block)

Dashed line = Kp 5 (G1). Full 3-day forecast →

NOAA geomagnetic notices

Watch G1 (Minor) predicted for Tue 20 Oct (UTC day) issued 20:14 UTC, 17 Oct · WATA20 #1130
Historical notice K-index 4 (below G1) reached at 19:40 UTC, 16 Oct
Historical notice K-index 4 (below G1) warning ended 03:00 UTC, 17 Oct
Historical notice K-index 4 (below G1) warning ended 12:00 UTC, 14 Oct
Historical notice Watch WATA20 #1129 was replaced by a newer bulletin
Historical notice NOAA cancelled the watch issued 16:36 UTC, 9 Oct

What this page is

Aurorix answers one question — can you see the aurora tonight, from where you are? — and shows the reasoning, not just a number. We read NOAA's space-weather feeds every minute, translate them into plain language, and compare them against your latitude, tonight's darkness, and the moon.

Three honest truths we'll keep repeating, because they're what actually trip people up: Kp lags (it's a 3-hour average), cameras beat eyes for faint aurora, and aurora arrives in waves that reward patience. New here? Start with how to see the aurora.

Part of the sky network: Stargazr for tonight's sky and meteor showers, and Eclipsor for eclipses.

Sources
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center · SWPC Aurora – 30-Minute Forecast (OVATION) · UAF Geophysical Institute — Aurora Forecast